The Pitt Panthers begin defending their ACC Coastal division title when they begin their 2019 season against the Virginia Cavaliers. The two sides will meet at 7:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
According to the Week 1 odds, the Cavaliers are favored by 2.5 points on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 46.5 points.
The Panthers may have won the ACC Coastal division last year, going 6-2 in conference play, but they finished the season 7-7 overall. They lost three non-conference games, albeit to Penn State, Central Florida, and Notre Dame, and also fell to ACC basement dweller North Carolina to finish 7-5. After losing to Clemson in the ACC title game and Stanford in the Sun Bowl, Pitt was a modest 7-7 in 2018.
That being said, head coach Pat Narduzzi has guided Pitt to a bowl game in three of his four seasons. Despite a modest 28-24 record under Narduzzi, the Panthers have to be pleased with where they stand heading into 2019, especially since Narduzzi gives them the kind of stability at head coach that has long been missing in Pittsburgh.
Of course, few fanbases will be happier than the one in Charlottesville. Bronco Mendenhall was 2-10 during his first season at Virginia in 2016. But he has quickly turned things around, getting the Cavs to a bowl game in 2017 and securing a winning record at 8-5 in 2018, including the program’s first bowl win since 2005.
By all indications, Virginia is a program on the rise. Of their five losses last season, three came by a touchdown or less, including a pair of overtime losses. They were not far from a 10-win season in 2018, giving the Cavaliers somewhat lofty goals heading into 2019. Of course, that makes it vital that they get off to a fast start.
Pitt and Virginia have been yearly opponents since the Panthers joined the ACC in 2013. The Panthers have won five of those six meetings, including the last four. Last year, the Panthers won 23-13 in Charlottesville. This year, the Cavaliers will look to snap their four-game losing skid in this series and win in Pittsburgh for the first time.
It’s always tricky to lean toward road favorites in conference game, especially in the season opener before we’ve seen either team. But the spread is less than a field goal, which makes it a little easier. To be honest, Pitt is a little unpredictable heading into the season, but I like Virginia to at least match last year’s win total, so I’ll lean toward the Cavs to take care of business and cover the spread against the Panthers.
My biggest problem with Pitt is I don’t know what to expect from their offense. Quarterback Kenny Pickett looked promising late in his freshman season back in 2017, but he failed to take a step forward in 2018. He completed less than 60% of his passes and couldn’t even eclipse 2,000 yards passing, and that was in 14 games as the full-time starter. Conventional wisdom says he’ll be better this year, but I have to see it to believe it.
Of course, Pitt’s biggest problem on offense is that they lost a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. Those two carried the offense last year, and the Panthers have no experienced backs ready to take their place. The Panthers will also have three inexperienced starters along the offensive line. That makes me skeptical of the running game being as potent as it was a year ago, putting way too much on Pickett’s shoulders.
To be fair, the defensive line could be the biggest weakness of the Virginia defense. But the Cavaliers should have enough at linebacker and in the secondary to help make up for it. If the Pitt offensive line has some growing pains early in the season, the Virginia defense should be able to keep the Pitt rushing attack in check and force Pickett and an unheralded group of receivers to beat them.
On the other side of the ball, the Virginia offense is still led by quarterback Bryce Perkins. Unfortunately for the Cavs, 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Ellis and 1,000-yard receiver Olamide Zaccheaus are both gone. However, Perkins was always the engine the made the Virginia offense run last year, so I think they’ll be okay.
Perkins is a dynamic runner and if nothing else an efficient passer. He completed 65% of his passes a year ago while limiting himself to nine interceptions. Even if his supporting cast is a little inexperienced, Perkins will be fine against a Pitt defense that’s young at linebacker and wasn’t great at getting after the quarterback last season.
Admittedly, Perkins and the Virginia offense aren’t exactly explosive. However, Barring something unexpected from Pickett, I think the Pitt offense will struggle to score points against the Cavs. Even if Virginia can’t pull away, they only need to win by a field goal to cover, so I like my chances with the Cavaliers as a road favorite.