The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to get underway on Saturday, May 2nd at Churchill Downs. This is a Grade 1 stakes race for three-year-old thoroughbreds, and it’s held annually in Louisville, Kentucky. This is a 1 1/4-mile race that is known in the United States as “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” as well as the “Run for the Roses”.
It is the first leg of the Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. The Kentucky Derby has been run every year since 1875, making this the 152nd running. The attendance at the event ranks first in North America and surpasses that of all the other stakes races, including the Breeders’ Cup.
Because of its popularity, the Kentucky Derby draws millions of fans and bettors around the world. I’m going to take a look at the wagering side of it and go through and give my predictions for this year’s race. I will give my Win, Place and Show picks for the horses to finish in 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I will also give my exotic bets.
I had a big 2025 Kentucky Derby hitting everything. I won the Exacta, Trifecta and even the Superfecta. A $2 Exacta on 18-8 paid $48.32, a $1 Trifecta on 18-8-21 paid $231.12 and a $1 Superfecta on 18-8-21-3 paid $1,682.27!
Renegade is the best horse in the field and entered as the Derby favorite for good reason. But drawing the #1 post has scared many bettors off of him. And I think because of that we are going to get a much better price on Renegade than we should be getting at post.
His pedigree is as good as any in the field. His father is Into Mischief, and his mother is a Curlin mare whose dam is by Bernardini, the broodmare sire of Sovereignty. Renegade has the speed and stamina to get any distance on the classic trail.
The consensus best jockey in North American is Irad Ortiz Jr. He has been aboard four of the top Kentucky Derby contenders in Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado and Full Effort. He chose to ride Renegade, which speaks volumes for a jockey that has done everything but win the Kentucky Derby. You know he wants it badly, and he feels that Renegade gives him the best chance.
It’s easy to see why after Renegade won the Grade 2 Sam F. Davis Stakes and followed it up with a win at the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in his final two prep races for the Kentucky Derby. He won by 3 3/4 lengths in the Sam F. Davis, finishing 6 lengths ahead of 3rd-place finisher The Puma, one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders. He beat another derby contender in Silent Tactic by 4 lengths in the Arkansas Derby.
I love Renegade’s closing style which sets up perfectly for this race. There is a lot of speed and I’m expecting very fast fractions, which will set up closers to have success, and there’s not another closer in the field that is close to being on the same level as Renegade. He had massive finishing kicks with triple-digit late pace figures in both of his 2026 starts.
There’s at least three horses that will try to get the lead in #4 Litmus Test, #16 Pavlovian and #17 Six Speed. This will set up a pace duel between at least these three horses that could really spread out the field. That will make it easier for closers to find a path late than it normally would in this crowded 20-horse field.
Keep in mind they put in a new starting gate a few years ago at Churchill Downs that makes breaking from the gate much easier for the inside horses. Sierra Leone finished 2nd from the #2 post in 2024 just two years ago. I expect Renegade to becomes the first horse since Ferdinand in 1986 to win from the #1 post. He may be the best horse to run from the #1 post since Ferdinand, too. I trust Irad Ortiz Jr. to save ground inside and to not exert a ton of energy in the early stages, setting up Renegade for his impressive closing kick to come through for the victory.
So Happy is the sentimental favorite. But this is one sentimental favorite that has a legit shot to win the Kentucky Derby. One rewatch of his win at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby shows that he is a real contender.
So Happy chased down Santa Anita Derby favorite Potente and won by 2 3/4 lengths at 7/1 odds. He was gaining ground through the finish line, showing that he had plenty left in the tank to get the extra 1/8-mile that will be required in the Kentucky Derby.
Though is sire Runhappy is more known for speed with seven wins in seven starts at seven furlongs or less, his dam So Cunning brings winning bloodlines through Blame genetics. Grandsire Super Saver won the Derby.
Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is one of the best, previously winning the Derby aboard Giacomo and Justify. So Happy will be in perfect position to pounce on the early speed coming around the final turn with a stalking trip and triple-digit Early Pace numbers when needed. There’s a good chance this is a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby from a fast fractions perspective. I really like So Happy’s chances to win the Derby if he doesn’t get run down by Renegade late.
Further Ado’s best may be better than any other Kentucky Derby contender. He posted the field’s highest speed figure in his 11-length romp in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on April 4th at Keeneland. And that effort is part of the reason I’m using him on top in all my exotic bets alongside Renegade and So Happy.
His father is Gun Runner, who won 12 races and nearly $16 million in his career. His jockey is Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who already has three Derby wins under his belt. And his trainer Brad Cox may be the best in the business currently.
Further Ado also won a stakes race at Churchill Downs already, so he is familiar with the track. One knock is that he lost to The Puma by 3/4 lengths at the Grade 1 Tampa Bay Derby. Another is that the Blue Grass Stakes was a very week field. And Gun Runner’s sons tend to have their best races after the Derby, not in it, including Taiba, Cyberknife, Disarm and Sierra Leone, who all improved after running in the Derby.
He is a stalker, and stalking trips notoriously have produced the most Kentucky Derby winners. He has shown a preference for racing within a few lengths of the pacesetter. As long as he doesn’t press too much too soon, he should be in perfect position to get the first jump around the final turn to pass the tired leaders coming for home.
Commandment has the best credentials of all the Kentucky Derby contenders and has to be taken seriously as a result. He arrives at Churchill Downs as the points leader by winning four consecutive races, including the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. That’s the same prep sequence that Sovereignty followed to victory in 2025.
Not to mention, Commandment beat fellow Derby contenders The Puma and Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby to get here. Many believe these to be the three best horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a lot of sharp money is being bet on The Puma and Chief Wallabee in the early going. If you like one of those three, you have to like the other two as well with how closely-contested the Florida Derby was.
Commandment is by Into Mischief and out of a daughter of 2013 Derby winner Orb, giving him the same speed-stamina combo that has produced the last three Into Mischief Derby winners. Trainer Brad Cox is the best in the business currently.
The main concern is that both Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat both passed on a chance to ride Commandment after both won stakes races aboard him. Irad Ortiz Jr. chose Renegade, while Prat chose to ride Emerging Market. That leaves Luis Saez, who is at his best racing from the front, not so much finding a trip from further back which is Commandment’s preferred running style.
Chief Wallabee broke his maiden with a 1/2-length win at Gulfstream Park over seven furlongs. He lost by just a nose in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park in his second race over 1 1/16 miles. And most recently, he finished 3rd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles. He finished within a length of both Commandment and The Puma, two of the top contenders to win the Kentucky Derby.
He has a great chance to improve by putting on Blinkers for the first time that will hopefully focus him after two tough trips in his last two races. He was struggling to keep it straight down the stretch of the Florida Derby, killing his chances to win and perhaps making other contenders look better than they were. His head tends to bob to the right, and his connections are hoping Blinkers will fix that problem, though horses using Blinkers for the first time are on an 0-for-13 run in the Kentucky Derby.
What he does have going for him are the same connections that produced last year’s Derby winner in Sovereignty. Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado will try to run it back again. The Florida Derby has produced seven of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners, so I’m not completely leaving Chief Wallabee, The Puma and Commandment off my exotics.
I initially had The Puma in this spot before he scratched. I’m replacing him with the last horse I left off my tickets in Incredibolt. He will help juice up the payouts if he hits the board as my favorite long shot in the field, so it may be a blessing in disguise for us that The Puma scratched.
Incredibolt has already won twice at Churchill Downs last fall on fast tracks, so he has the familiarity and clearly likes this track. That includes his victory in the Street Sense Stakes. After a no show in the Holy Bull, trainer Riley Mott said he hated that track. He proved it was an aberration by coming back and winning the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on another fast track by an impressive four lengths. He has an affinity for fast tracks, and Churchill Downs will be dry and fast Saturday.
His closing kick in the Virginia Derby with some of the best late fractions in this field show he can get the distance the Derby requires. His female family, Awesome Again, is one of the most reliable sources of classic-distance stamina in American breeding. If he takes another leap forward like he did in the Virginia Derby, Incredibolt will be a factor Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.
$100 to Win on #1
$4 Exacta on 1, 8, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18 (Costs $60)
$1 Trifecta on 1, 8, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18 (Costs $60)
$1 Superfecta on 1, 8, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18/1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18 (Costs $180)
I’m playing the 1, 8 and 18 to finish 1st in all my exotics. I’m playing the 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 18 in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. So the 1, 8, or 18 has to finish 1st for any of these tickets to cash.
If you are new to the Kentucky Derby, then you might want to check out my betting guide for beginners. This year’s complete odds are listed below.
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Renegade | 5/1 |
| 2. Albus | 44/1 |
| 3. Intrepido | 46/1 |
| 4. Litmus Test | 26/1 |
| 6. Commandment | 5/1 |
| 7. Danon Bourbon | 15/1 |
| 8. So Happy | 5/1 |
| 10. Wonder Dean | 23/1 |
| 11. Incredibolt | 25/1 |
| 12. Chief Wallabee | 7/1 |
| 14. Potente | 21/1 |
| 15. Emerging Market | 9/1 |
| 16. Pavlovian | 46/1 |
| 17. Six Speed | 31/1 |
| 18. Further Ado | 6/1 |
| 19. Golden Tempo | 25/1 |
| 21. Great White | 23/1 |
| 22. Ocelli | 86/1 |
| 23. Robusta | 84/1 |