The Tennessee Titans will kick off a new era with a new head coach when they visit the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 9, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Fans in local markets can watch the game on Fox.
Looking at the NFL Week 1 odds, the Titans are listed as 1-point road favorites. However, early betting has favored the Dolphins after Tennessee opened as 2.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 45 points.
The Titans are coming off an appearance in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last season. After locking down a wild-card spot, Tennessee knocked off the Chiefs on the road in the Wild Card Round. Despite losing to the Patriots in the next round, it was a big step forward for the Titans. However, the Titans still chose to part ways with head coach Mike Mularkey after the season. First-time head coach Mike Vrabel has been brought in to help the Titans maintain that level of success and perhaps take another step forward.
Miami, meanwhile, is hoping that the return of Ryan Tannehill can be the catalyst for a bounce-back season in 2018. Tannehill missed all of 2017 due to injury, as the Dolphins went 6-10 with Jay Cutler as the starter for most of the season. Of course, Tannehill wasn’t exactly an elite quarterback before sitting out an entire season, so he’s far from a sure thing to make a meaningful difference this year.
Both of these teams failed to make much of an impression during the preseason. The Titans were winless while the Dolphins were just 1-3. However, both could be wise to start the regular season with a win. After traveling to Miami, the Titans play three of their next four games against playoff teams from last season. Miami’s schedule, on the other hand, is a lot more forgiving, so holding serve at home in Week 1 could be their ticket to a fast start.
I’m not sure I understand the early betting on the Dolphins aside from the fact that they’re the home team. In any event, this game is essentially down to a PK, which for me, makes it easier to lean toward the Titans. To be honest, they weren’t the most convincing playoff team a season ago, but I think they have a little more upside under Vrabel this season. I also think they match up well against the Dolphins, so I’ll lean toward road favorite Tennessee in this game.
Tannehill looked fine in the preseason, but we didn’t see him enough to know if he’ll show any signs of rust when the regular season gets started. That means the Dolphins will rely a lot on running backs Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore to carry them early in the year. Drake finished last season strong but still has something to prove this season. Gore, meanwhile, is no spring chicken, so I’m not quite sold on that backfield duo just yet.
Perhaps more importantly, the Titans were strong defending the run last year. The Tennessee defense yielded just 3.6 yards per carry. Even with a new coaching staff, they should be set up well to defend the run again this season, and they’ll definitely be focusing on Miami’s rushing attack, hoping they can force Tannehill to beat them through the air.
To be fair, Tannehill has some good weapons around him in the passing game. The Dolphins essentially swapped out Jarvis Landry for Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson. With Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker still in the fold, Tannehill has plenty of viable targets in the passing game against a Tennessee secondary that was vulnerable last season. However, the Titans have added Malcolm Butler and Kenny Vaccaro to their secondary, so it may not be so easy for the Dolphins to attack through the air, especially if they struggle to run the ball and are forced to throw.
Meanwhile, I have high hopes for the Tennessee offense this season. Vrabel’s staff will run a zone-blocking scheme that should be a good fit for backs Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis. The mobility of quarterback Marcus Mariota should help the Titans show a little creativity on offense, especially if teams have to respect their running game.
With the new scheme and a fairly young group of receivers, I do have some concern that the Tennessee offense won’t be clicking early in the season, especially after a lack of success during the preseason. But with the Dolphins losing Ndamukong Suh over the offseason, I also have some concerns about Miami’s run defense, so it’s possible that the Titans will be able to move the ball on the ground to help open things up for Mariota.
I won’t deny that this will probably be a close game. But I have some concerns about both Tannehill and the Miami defense. With fewer questions about the Titans heading into the season, I’ll lean toward Tennessee to pull out a close game on the road. With the spread down to a single point, I feel good about picking Tennessee.