The no. 10 Texas Longhorns enter 2019 will begin the 2019 season with a home game against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Game time is set for 8:00 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The game is available on the Longhorn Network.
According to the Week 1 college football odds, the Longhorns are favored by 20.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 55 points.
In two short seasons, Tom Herman has put Texas back on the map. The Longhorns are not far removed from three consecutive losing seasons under Charlie Strong, including two seasons in which they failed to qualify for a bowl game. But Herman has quickly changed that, getting the program turned around much sooner than expected.
Herman led the Longhorns to a 7-6 record and a bowl win during his first season in 2017. Last season, he took things a step further, guiding Texas to second place in the Big 12, which included an upset over rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns played in the Big 12 Championship Game, losing a rematch against Oklahoma, but concluded the season with a Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia to finish the season 10-4 and set the stage for bigger things in 2019.
As for Louisiana Tech, they are plugging right along under Skip Holtz, who is entering his seventh season with the Bulldogs. Holtz has taken Louisiana Tech to five straight bowl games, winning all five of them. The Bulldogs have also reached the Conference-USA Championship Game on two occasions during his six-year tenure.
The only thing missing from Holtz’s resume at Louisiana Tech is a win upset a ranked team. The Bulldogs fell short against LSU and Mississippi State last year and have also had some close losses against other power-5 conference teams over the years. The Bulldogs would love nothing more than to finally score a marquee win as they face Texas on Saturday for the first time.
I’m going against my instincts a little with this pick. This is not an unreasonable spread for Texas to cover against a mid-major program, especially at home. But I’m not yet ready to go all-in on the Longhorns. Also, Texas has lost their season opener in each of the past two seasons under Herman, both times against a Maryland team that wasn’t that good. I’m not saying Texas is going to lose this game, but I’m also not confident enough in them to swallow 20.5 points.
My biggest concern for Texas is their defense. This unit was excellent last year in games that weren’t against Oklahoma. But the Longhorns have nine starters to replace this season. To be fair, with the way Herman has recruited, finding talented players to fill those spots won’t be an issue. However, their lack of experience could be a problem, especially in a season opener.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech brings back several key players on offense. It starts with senior quarterback J’Mar Smith, who has two years of starting experience under his belt. To be fair, Smith took a step back in 2018 and the entire Tech offense wasn’t as explosive as it was in 2017. However, the Bulldogs return 10 of their top 11 receivers from last season, so Smith should feel comfortable and have plenty of continuity with his receivers. Against a Texas defense that’s lacking in experience everywhere but safety, Smith and the Louisiana Tech offense have a chance to find their rhythm early and have a good game.
My one concern with the Bulldogs offensively is that they didn’t make enough of a commitment to running the ball last year. They’ll need to be balanced on offense if they’re going to keep up with the Longhorns. But with three starters returning on the offensive line, they shouldn’t be afraid to at least try running the ball against the Texas defensive line.
Naturally, I do have some concerns about Texas being able to pull away in this game behind Sam Ehlinger and the offense. Ehlinger was fantastic last season, tossing 25 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He’ll also have Keaontray Ingram and freshman Jordan Whittington to help him in the backfield, as well as some experienced receivers. I have little doubt that the Longhorns will score some points in this game.
That being said, the Louisiana Tech was solid last year, giving up less than 24 points per game. They’ve lost top-notch pass rusher Jaylon Ferguson, but their secondary returns four of its five starters and leading tackler Collin Scott returns as well at linebacker. I don’t know if they’ll keep the Texas offense contained for 60 minutes, but they’re not going to let the Longhorns just push them around.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Texas has a massive game against LSU next week. It’ll be hard for the Longhorns not to look ahead a little, which could be a problem against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs may not have the same level of talent as Texas, but they have an experienced quarterback and a solid defense. To me, that’s enough to think that Louisiana Tech can keep this game close and beat the spread.