The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles look to build off last season’s Conference USA West title. They are on the road for a week 1 contest against the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday night. The kickoff from Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky is set for 7:30 pm ET. National television coverage is provided by ESPNU for the contest. The odds for this contest currently have Kentucky as a 6.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 63.5 points.
Southern Miss took huge strides in Todd Monken’s third year as head coach. The team tripled their win total, going from 3-9 in 2014 to 9-5 last season. The Golden Eagles won Conference USA’s West Division. They lost to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game before falling 44-31 to Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Kentucky was pretty much the same team in 2015 as they were in 2014. The team posted the same 5-7 record in Mark Stoops’ third year as in his second. One has to wonder if Stoops’ seat is getting a bit warm in Lexington.
The teams have met twice previously, with Kentucky winning both matchups. The Wildcats coasted to a 32-0 victory in the last meeting between the teams back in 1986.
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Southern Miss is one of only two schools bringing back a 4,000 yard passer and a 1,000 yard rusher. The other team that can boast that offensive talent returning is Clemson, who reached the CFP National Championship Game last season. Monken took the offensive coordinator job with Tampa Bay after the season. Jay Hopson, who is a defensive minded coach, takes over the head coaching reins. He inherits a team that brings back seven offensive starters, including the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Nick Mullens. He was sixth in the FBS with 4,476 yards through the air and fourth with 38 passing scores. Coupled with Ito Smith, who ran for 1,128 yards and 10 scores while catching 49 passes, and the Golden Eagles have versatility. Southern Miss was 13th in the nation in scoring offense with 39.9 points a game last year.
The Golden Eagles bring back six starters on the defensive side of the ball. Southern Miss was 49th in scoring defense by allowing 25.6 points per game. The Golden Eagles ranked 70th in the FBS in pass defense by allowing 227.6 yards per game through the air. Southern Miss was 4-3 on the road last year, giving up 410.7 yards per game in those contests compared to 348.3 yards per game at home. D’Nerius Antoine is a great talent in the secondary. He racked up 103 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, two picks and five pass defenses. If Hopson can get the Golden Eagles up into the top 50 in pass defense, the Golden Eagles will be a threat to repeat as Conference USA West Division champ.
Kentucky was a middle of the pack team on defense last season but the offense failed to deliver much. The Wildcats were 96th in scoring offense with an average of 24.7 points per game. The Wildcats started the year 4-1 but was 1-6 down the stretch. Kentucky struggles in November under Stoops: they are 1-7 in his tenure. Drew Barker played in two games as a freshman last season and takes over for the departed Patrick Towles. He gets the keys to the offense but it’s more like an AMC Gremlin than a Maserati.
The Wildcats have nine starters back on offense. The returning group includes a pair of good running backs in Stanley Williams and JoJo Kemp. That duo put up 1,410 rushing yards and a dozen scores last season. With new co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw, it’s a safe bet they’ll be utilitized to keep pressure off Barker. That duo took the short trip down from Cincinnati to try and revitalize the Kentucky offense. Four starters from the offensive line are back along with last season’s two top pass catchers.
The Wildcats’ problem will be defensively as they need to replace seven starters from last year. That includes six of the top seven tacklers from last season. Kentucky has to develop a pass rush after mustering just 17 sacks a year ago. There’s a lot of pressure on nose tackle Matt Elam as he’s the lone returning starter from the defensive front seven. Elam is a space eater at 6’7, 360 but the guys around him have to make plays.
Southern Miss is 4-0 ATS in their last four in September and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Kentucky is 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, 1-6 ATS in their last seven on grass and 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.