The no. 19 Wisconsin Badgers begin their 2019 season with a non-conference road game against the South Florida Bulls. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Friday, August 30, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The game can be seen nationally on ESPN.
According to oddsmakers, the Badgers are 13.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 57.5 points. Be sure to check out all of the Week 1 college football odds.
The Badgers are coming off what was undoubtedly their most disappointing season under Paul Chryst. They began the season as Big Ten West division favorites and a serious contender to reach the College Football Playoff. However, things never clicked for the Badgers, who ended up 5-4 in Big Ten play. Even with a bowl win, Wisconsin finished 8-5 after going 34-7 during Chryst’s first three seasons in Madison.
Alas, this is a new season, albeit with lower expectations. Rather than beginning the season ranked no. 4 in the country as they did in 2018, the Badgers are only no. 19. That means there’s little margin for error if they want to work their way into the CFP conversation.
As for South Florida, they are getting ready for year 3 of the Charlie Strong era. In Strong’s first season, the Bulls went 10-2 and were one of the top teams in the American conference. However, they took a considerable step backward in 2018. After starting the season 7-0, they finished 7-6 overall and 3-5 in conference play, including a loss in the Gasparilla Bowl.
It’s vital that Strong and the Bulls quickly prove that last year’s poor finish was an aberration. It doesn’t help that all six losses were by double digits. Also, USF hasn’t won a game since October 20, so the program needs to get one in the win column as soon as possible. Obviously, opening the season against Wisconsin makes that a tall task.
This will be only the second time that South Florida and Wisconsin have met. They played in Madison in 2014, with the host Badgers winning 27-10. Of course, both teams have new coaches and a whole new set of players since that meeting.
I lost a lot of trust in Wisconsin over the course of last season, and I’m not sure there’s enough to make me believe in them right off the bat in 2019. Also, I trust Strong to fix some of the issues that plagued USF late last year, especially on defense. I don’t know if the Bulls can pull off the win, but I think they’ll make this a close game and beat the spread.
Wisconsin’s biggest problem last year was the quarterback position. True freshman Graham Mertz could be the long-term answer, but Jack Coan is likely to start against South Florida. Coan was solid but unimpressive as the backup last season, and I don’t see him being much better this year. Wisconsin’s inconsistency at wide receiver last year won’t help either.
Naturally, if the Badgers are going to dominate this game, they’ll have to do it with their running game. Jonathan Taylor is a bonafide Heisman contender after amassing over 2,100 yards rushing last year. However, the Wisconsin offensive line is replacing several longtime starters on the offensive line. The Badgers recruit well, so talent shouldn’t be an issue, but that unit may not gel enough early in the year to dominate the season opener. Also, Strong will know that he has to shut down the Wisconsin rushing attack. He’ll have no problem stacking the box given USF’s loaded secondary and Wisconsin’s issues throwing the ball last year.
In fact, South Florida may have a more explosive offense than Wisconsin. Blake Barnett, who was once one of the highest-rated recruits in the country, will be entering his second season as the USF starting quarterback. He finally has some much-needed experience under his belt, even if the USF offense faded late in 2018 and has a new offensive coordinator this year.
New offensive coordinator Kerwin Bell could make a big difference for the Bulls. He’s taking the tempo out of the USF offense, which could help the Bulls control the clock, especially with two running backs who gained over six yards per carry last year. With a good rushing attack to support him and more game experience, Barnett should be better set up to succeed than he was in 2018. He’ll also have Randall St. Felix, his leading receiver last year, and Mitchell Wilcox, who’s one of the best tight ends in the country.
It’s also worth noting that the Wisconsin defense lost key players at all three levels. The Badgers also had some mixed results on that side of the ball last year. The Wisconsin front-7 may have a hard time shutting down the USF rushing game, especially with the Bulls returning four starters on the offensive line.
All things considered, I think South Florida will have some success running the ball, which will shorten the game and help keep Wisconsin’s offense out of rhythm. At the same time, the Badgers aren’t likely to create many explosive plays in the passing game, which should also help to keep the game close. Ultimately, I feel more comfortable leaning toward South Florida and the points.