On Sunday, the Oakland Raiders travel across country to take on the Buffalo Bills. This old AFL rivalry, will see the Bills wear their throwback jerseys in tribute to those AFL days. The Raiders are looking to get to .500, while Buffalo looks to remain undefeated at home. AFC playoff implications are on the line as these two teams face-off in Western New York. Kickoff inside New Era Field is at 1 PM ET.
This is the third time these two teams have played in the last 4 years. The Raiders have taken the last two games, which were both in Oakland. The Bills have won the last 6 games in Buffalo, dating back to 1994.
The Oakland Raiders (3-4) are coming off an exciting divisional victory over the KC Chiefs, which saw them win on the last play of the game. In fact, they had to replay the final offensive snap a few times due to penalties on both teams. It was definitely a finish for the ages. Oakland is 1-2 on the road this season and has lost their last 2 road games. They look to get to .500 on the road and overall for the season.
The Buffalo Bills (4-2) also had an exciting finish to their game last weekend. Down by 7 points with roughly 3 minutes left in the game, the Bills drove down the field for a game tying touchdown. Their defense then forced a fumble on Tampa Bay’s drive, which led to Buffalo kicking a field goal to win the game. The Bills are undefeated at home this season (3-0) and they look to protect their home field advantage and to get revenge on the Raiders.
The spread opened with Buffalo favored by 3 points, but it has since come down to 2.5 points. The Over/Under opened at 44.5 points and it has gone up to 45.5 total points.
The Raiders offense came alive last week as they put up 31 points against the Chiefs. Quarterback Derek Carr had a big game as he finished with 417 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, including the game winner. With that win, the Raiders were able to snap a 3 game losing streak and now look to create another winning streak on the season.
Offensively, the Raiders are scoring 22.1 ppg, but have troubles scoring on the road. In three road games, the Raiders have scored an average of 15.3 ppg. That’s bad news for their matchup against the Bills who only allow 16.8 ppg. The Bills defense is even stingier at home and they will definitely get after Carr this weekend.
Oakland will be without their main running back Marshawn Lynch who is suspended this weekend for shoving a referee during a melee in the Chiefs game. This would have been a homecoming for Lynch, as it’s the first time he has returned to Buffalo since the team traded him to Seattle a handful of years ago.
Without Lynch, the Raiders will struggle to even get to their mark of 92 rushing yards per game, which ranks them 24th in the league. The Bills have the 7th best run defense at 84.5 yards per game. In their 3 home games, Buffalo has allowed only 72.4 rushing yards per game. And, without Lynch, the Raiders will have a hard time on the ground against this Bills run defense.
Also at home, the Bills have forced at least 2 turnovers per game and only allow 18.3 ppg. However, the Bills due give up 271 passing yards per game, which includes 384 to Jameis Winston last week. And that could be their Achilles heel this week against the Raiders who are heating up on offense. It might be even worse if the Bills are without starting defensive backs Gaines and Poyer. When Gaines has missed action, the Bills secondary has been beaten badly (see the Bengals game).
For the Bills on offense, it starts with their o-line blocking for Shady McCoy. Last week, McCoy scored his first 2 touchdowns on the season and drove the Bills wagons to victory. The Raiders have the 19th ranked rush defense and allow 113.9 yards per game. But, the one area that might actually win the game for the Bills is the Raiders weak secondary.
Oakland gives up 256.9 passing yards per game, which is only 15 yards better per game than Buffalo. And, they gave up 342 passing yards to Alex Smith last weekend, 268 passing yards to Philip Rivers two weeks ago, and they even gave up 222 yards to the terrible Joe Flacco 3 games ago. So, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor definitely has a chance to post another solid game this week. Against Tampa Bay last weekend, Taylor threw for 268 yards and a touchdown. He also added 53 yards on the ground.
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Buffalo is 2-0-1 in their 3 home games on the season.
I expect Buffalo to play solid defense and run the ball well in this game. I look for Taylor to have another big game in total yards. What he can’t accomplish through the air, he will get on the ground. This game will be a close one, but Buffalo will pull it out late in the game 20-16.