Sometimes, the odds can inspire a double-take.
Notre Dame and Michigan State are set for a prime-time clash this Saturday, and on paper the foes look very evenly matched. Similar yard totals on offense. Similar point differential. Each unit’s leading receiver has exactly 9 catches. In fact, the schools are 5-5 in their last 10 head-to-head match-ups.
Yet the 2-1 Fighting Irish are favored by 4 points over the undefeated Spartans.
Is it a case of Golden Dome fever, swaying the action toward the hype? More likely, it’s about strength-of-schedule. Notre Dame’s lone loss was by 1 point to the powerful Georgia Bulldogs, while the Spartans have whipped a pair of MAC opponents.
Who: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan State Spartans
When: Saturday, September 23rd, 8 PM EST
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Lines: Notre Dame (-4) at Michigan State (+4) / O/U Total: (54)
Brian Kelly may have taken a subtle shot across the bow in an interview this week, hinting to ESPN that the Spartans are not as talented as they have been in recent years.
There is no question MSU is a blue-collar team, fitting the identity of their school. Signal-caller Brian Lewerke’s passing numbers were not gaudy against Western Michigan in a 28-14 win. But the QB found another way to contribute, rushing for almost 100 yards and scoring twice on the ground.
The hard-nosed Spartan defense has only allowed just over 200 yards per contest, allowing Bowling Green QB James Morgan only 10-of-31 completions, and collecting 4 sacks against WMU
Notre Dame looks characteristically nimble on offense, with dual-threat QB Brandon Wimbush racing for an impressive 207 yards and 4 touchdowns last weekend against Boston College. Though BC may not be a contender, their defense is no joke – and athletically similar to MSU’s starting 11 on ‘D.
That gives Wimbush’s performance – and the 7-touchdown explosion by the Irish in a 49-20 win, extra credence going into this Saturday.
We’re liking Notre Dame to cover.
Michigan State’s best opportunity to win is to control the football on the ground, as the Irish have been giving up an average-or-worse amount of yards on the ground. But MSU’s leading RB, L.J. Scott, is only averaging 3.8 yards a carry – and that’s against 2 MAC defenses.
More likely, the Irish will score points in the 1st half with an up-tempo attack and put the Spartans behind the 8-ball. Lewerke will run, scramble and throw bravely to try to bring the hosts back, but it won’t be enough.
Play the Irish at (-4).