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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Match Up |
Pick |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Analysis |
Jazz vs Grizzlies |
Jazz +12½ -115 |
Premium |
115-122 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz are still keeping eyes on Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, and Jaden Springer, who are all questionable, while the Grizzlies have ruled Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey as questionable for this meeting. The season really couldn't end quickly enough for the Jazz, who can't buy a win these days, but it's not like they have been terrible. They were able to erase a 24-point lead against the Celtics in their last game. The Grizzlies were really struggling before their narrow win over the Suns on Monday, and they are still missing Jaren Jackson Jr, who has been rock solid for them all season. I think the Grizzlies pulled away late for the comfortable win, but I just feel that the line is just a bit too generous for a Grizzlies team still struggling.
|
Suns vs Rockets |
Suns +4½ -108 |
Premium |
104-111 |
Loss |
-108 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won each of their last three games following a loss and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against the Rockets following a loss. While the Rockets have lost four of their last five night games against Pacific Division opponents that held a losing record and have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six night games against Pacific Division opponents.
|
Hornets vs Hawks |
Hornets +8½ -108 |
Premium |
110-123 |
Loss |
-108 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets have won six of their last nine games as underdogs against the Hawks and have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Hawks. While the Hawks have lost each of their last six Wednesday night games against Hornets teams that held a losing record and have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games at State Farm Arena against Hornets teams that held a losing record.
|
Wolves vs Nuggets |
Nuggets -4 -108 |
Premium |
115-95 |
Loss |
-108 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Our power ratings slightly favor the Nuggets which is the play we’re going to recommend going 8-4 ATS against divisional foes this season. Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable for Denver, but Russell Westbrook did a solid job of filling in for him scoring 16 points on 6-10 shooting and 3-5 from three-point range against OKC last time out. We don’t see the Timberwolves taking three-straight from the Nuggets, especially with this one being in Denver and Minnesota sitting just 18th in defensive rating across their last ten games compared to sitting seventh in defensive efficiency for the season.
|
Mavs vs Spurs |
Mavs +6½ -115 |
Premium |
116-126 |
Loss |
-115 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The straight up loss to Dallas dropped San Antonio to just 2-12 ATS against the Southwest Division and 2-8 ATS across their last ten games. The Mavericks are holding on to the last play-in spot in the West but Phoenix is inching closer and closer, now just 2.5 games behind them. It would speak volumes if this Mavericks team can still make the play-in considering the lineups they’re rolling out as of late and we’ll take the points with them in San Antonio tonight. It’s worth noting that Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are both listed questionable for this game with Sochan missing last game and Vassell scoring 24 points on 10-22 shooting. If either were to miss tonight, we like the Mavericks that much more. It also doesn’t help San Antonio’s cause that De’Aaron Fox has averaged under 20 ppg since becoming a Spur which has been underwhelming. Take the Mavs plus the points.
|
Thunder vs Celtics |
Celtics -130 |
Premium |
118-112 |
Loss |
-130 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder arrive in Boston looking for a sweep of the season series with the Celtics. The Thunder took care of Boston in the first game thanks to a strong defensive effort that held the high-scoring Celtics under 100 points. Boston will have Tatum back in this game, and Horford will as well. That will help the Celtics spread the floor and give their potent 3-point offense more space to shine. In the first matchup, the Celtics scored 65 points in the first half at OKC before scoring 27 points in the second half to take the loss. Don't expect a similar showing in the rematch. The Celtics' ability to hit from beyond the arc is tops in the NBA and even against a Thunder team that is tops in 3-point defense, they'll get plenty of good looks. They have won five straight games and are wrapping up this seven-game homestand looking to end on a high note. They'll take advantage of their ability to get second chance opportunities against a Thunder team that ranks just 19th in the NBA in rebounding and pull away in the second half for a victory and avoid a repeat of their disappointing second half in OKC.
|
USC vs Rutgers |
Rutgers +1½ -105 |
Premium |
97-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Rutgers won the regular season meeting 95-85 in late-February as Harper and Bailey combined for 39 points and 12 assists. Rutgers closed the regular season on a high note with an overtime win over Minnesota. Take a look at the path for the winner of this game. Purdue has lost five of its last seven games. Michigan has lost its last three and the Wolverines have been playing with fire for the last two months. Steve Pikiell is a very good coach, and if he can get Harper and Bailey motivated for one more run before the NBA comes calling, there is a path for the Scarlet Knights to make some noise in Indianapolis this week.
|
Kansas State vs Baylor |
Kansas State +6½ -115 |
Premium |
56-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The big story in that one was the re-emergence of fifth-year senior Coleman Hawkins. The Illinois transfer suffered a fractured tibia, but only missed three games and insisted on playing in the Big XII Tournament. He finished with 26 points, eight rebounds and two blocks in 38 minutes against the Sun Devils on Tuesday. We're struggling to see how Baylor is going to create enough margin to win this contest by multiple possessions. The Bears are outside the top-300 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. Over their last ten games, the Bears have scored an average of 69 points per game. Kansas State looked very comfortable playing at the T-Mobile Center last night. The 'Cats had four players finish in double figures and they shot 44.4-percent from three-point range. We don’t see too much that separates these teams on a neutral floor, especially since K-State has covered each of the last four in this matchup.
|
Virginia vs Georgia Tech |
Georgia Tech +1½ -120 |
Premium |
60-66 |
Win
|
100 |
Show
|
Rating; 2 Units Virginia beat Georgia Tech in the only meeting this season, but it’s the Yellow Jackets that are playing the better ball right now. While both teams have benefited hit or miss all year, it’s Georgia Tech that’s won seven of its last 10 games. Those wins include upsets over Louisville, Clemson, Stanford, and Pitt. Virginia remains a rough offensive club from a shooting perspective and the defense has taken a step back in terms of efficiency. Virginia just plays at a slow pace, but nothing about this team is special. Georgia Tech has shown more at both ends of the floor and is playing with more life entering the tournament. I like Georgia Tech to beat Virginia and to advance in the ACC Tournament.
|
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Mar 13 '25, 7:10 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NBA |
Wizards vs Pistons
Play on: Wizards +14½ -109 at BookMaker
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
The Wizards have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Pistons. While the Pistons have lost five of their last eight games as home favorites against Southeast Division opponents following a win and have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as home favorites following a home win. Additionally, the underdogs have covered the spread in six of the last seven games between the Wizards and Pistons at Little Caesars Arena.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 11:08 am
Mar 13 '25, 7:30 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NBA |
Lakers vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks -6 -110 at BookMaker
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
This is the first of a back-to-back for LA with a game at Denver on-deck and we know Doncic will want to suit up against his buddy Nikola Jokic so if he does sit one of these games, it’s likely to be tonight. Sure, both LA and Milwaukee sit top three in defensive rating across their last ten games, but as tonight stands we just don’t trust LA’s rotation that will include Alex Len, Jordan Goodwin and Trey Jemison III for tonight on the road. Take the Bucks to come out hot after their devastating loss on Tuesday as they sit in a three way tie for the 4-6 seeds in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 11:05 am
Mar 13 '25, 2:30 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B |
Marquette vs Xavier
Play on: Xavier +2½ -105 at Bovada
[Won: $100]
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
Marquette won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters and five of the last six. The record is 1-1 this season as each team secured a two-point win on the road. Considering how close those games were, I expect another tight affair that could go either way, while overtime is not excluded as well. Xavier is playing its best basketball of the year and is in better form than Marquette, and I am leaning toward the Musketeers in this one. Xavier has covered the Spread in 19 of its last 34 games, while Marquette has only covered the Spread in 17 of its previous 37 games. Back Xavier to cover.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 11:03 am
Mar 13 '25, 12:30 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B |
Iowa State vs BYU
Play on: Iowa State -2½ -115 at PlayMGM
[Lost: -$115]
Game Analysis
Rating; 2 Units
The red-hot Cougars have won eight straight games including a double-OT win over Iowa State on the road. They are 7-3 ATS in that span. The Cyclones closed out the season with seven wins in their final ten games and went 6-4 ATS in that time. They failed to cover the number in the double OT loss, coming in as an 8.5-point favorite at home. The Cyclones will need to shoot like they did against Cincinnati on the afternoon, rather than the 35 percent they shot at home against the Cougars last week. The Cyclones' ability to shoot from long range could be the difference on Thursday afternoon. The Cyclones are sixth in the conference in 3-point shooting and shot 48 percent from beyond the arc on Wednesday. That was against a Cincinnati defense that ranked 7th in 3-point defense, compared to the Cougars who are ranked 14th. Payback will be on the minds of the Cyclones on Thursday and they'll get to the weekend with a win over BYU.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:59 am
Mar 13 '25, 2:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B |
Davidson vs St. Louis
Play on: St. Louis -3 -113 at BookMaker
[Won: $100]
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
The Wildcats are on the second leg of a back-to-back after sneaking past Richmond on Wednesday. That game was a 40-minute grind as neither team held a lead of more than seven points. Davidson is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight games. The Wildcats are only scoring an average of 66.3 points per game during that stretch. Saint Louis shot 60.6-percent from two-point range in A-10 play, which is nearly ten-percent above the national average. At tournament time, we love to back a team that can score in a variety of ways without relying on the three-point shot in an unfamiliar arena. Saint Louis certainly fits that Bill(iken).
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:50 am
Mar 13 '25, 11:30 AM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B |
Duquesne vs St Bonaventure
Play on: Duquesne +2½ -110 at Ace
[Lost: -$110]
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
Bonaventure shot 47.1-percent from three-point range in their last versus Duquesne contest and the Bonnies "only" won by seven at home. A result like that will sound the regression alarms. Duquesne enjoyed a 39-24 advantage on the glass. Prior to that stumble, Duquesne had won the previous five meetings between these teams (4-1 ATS). The Dukes went 6-1-1 against the spread down the stretch with that lone loss coming against the Bonnies. All Coach Joyce has to do is put on film from last year's A-10 Championship run to light a fire under this year's squad. Any regression to the mean from the three-point line should be enough to propel Duquesne to victory in this opening round matchup.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:45 am
Mar 13 '25, 7:07 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NHL |
Bruins vs Senators
Play on: Bruins +173 at circa
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
Give me the value with the underdogs here. The Bruins appear to be finally figuring it out, and there is just too much value with them at this number here. The Bruins stepped up in the last game with the goaltending, and I expect strong goaltending again here. Swayman is giving up 2.92 goals, and against a team that hasn’t been perfect scoring goals this season, that problem will really hurt them here. The Bruins are going to pick up a road win here. Back the Bruins on the money line.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:39 am
Mar 13 '25, 7:07 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NHL |
Panthers vs Maple Leafs
Play on: Panthers -115 at Jazz
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
This will be a great game between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs look to step up on their home ice but the Panthers look to bounce back from a rough loss and control this game. The Panthers, who average 3.25 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Panthers, who allow only 2.69 goals per game, should limit the Maple Leafs offense with Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to make plenty of big saves. The Panthers should win the game with a strong performance on the road.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:35 am
Mar 13 '25, 7:00 PM
Play Type: Premium Pick
NCAA-B |
Baylor vs Texas Tech
Play on: Texas Tech -6 -115 at Bovada
Game Analysis
Rating: 2 Units
The Bears went 0-7 straight-up, 0-5-2 against the spread. In road and neutral site games, Baylor went 3-11-2 against the spread. Baylor head coach Scott Drew does not have a great history in this event, either. He led the Bears to the conference championship game in 2014. Since then, Baylor has not won multiple games at this event and has been eliminated in the opening game five times. These Lone Star State foes are operating on different tiers this season, and we expect Texas Tech to handle business with relative ease.
Pick Released on Mar 13 at 10:21 am
Most handicappers come to the business from either a sports or gambling background. And that’s fine, but the point of sports betting is to make money. So shouldn’t you be looking for someone who understands finance, too?
Good, that’s what you’re getting in Michael Alexander. A background in finance and a degree in statistics give him a unique analytic approach. Every time he puts out a pick, he weighs them with a risk/reward formula to maximize profits.
It’s easy to see that his methods are effective. He racks up a couple of top ten finishes every single season, it seems like. In 2011 alone, he had top 10 finishes in MLB, NFL, NHL, and college football.
In 2014, he put a lot of action down on the NFL preseason, and went 15-5, better than anyone else that year. And in 2013-2014, he finished #3 in college basketball. If you’re counting, that’s a recent top 10 finish in every major sport.
Michael’s streaks on the gridiron are especially impressive. He’s currently hitting 62% of his NFL picks since November 2015. His all sports streak since April 2016 stands at a respectable 52%. But that isn’t the impressive part. The impressive part is that he has earned over $3,200 on that modest percentage.
That’s the sign of a guy who understands how to identify a good value and a strong underdog. Michael Alexander uses his experience as a statistician to find those games and profit. All you have to do is subscribe, and get your cut of that profit.