The Massachusetts Minutemen take a long trip down the east coast for their season opener. They have a massive undertaking on their plates as they face the #25 Florida Gators Saturday night. The kickoff from the Swamp at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida is set for 7:30 pm ET. National television coverage is provided by the SEC Network. According to the current odds, Florida is a hefty 36.5 point favorite in this contest with the over/under set at 50 points.
Massachusetts has struggled since returning to the FBS level in 2012. The Minutemen are a combined 8-40 in those four seasons. Massachusetts posted a second straight 3-9 record under Mark Whipple in 2015. Florida was impressive in Jim McElwain’s season as head coach, finishing 10-4 and ranked #25 in the country. The Gators were rolled 41-7 by Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, their third straight defeat to close the year. Florida was outscored 97-24 in that season ending three game slide.
This marks the first meeting in school history between the programs.
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Massachusetts may be the worst team in the FBS after graduation hit the struggling program hard. Not only is last year’s starting quarterback Blake Frohnapfel (56.4 percent completion percentage, 2919 yards, 16 TD, 13 INT) gone, so are five other starters on the offensive side of the ball. Ross Comis, who was 15 of 21 for 171 yards and two scores in relief last year, may be the starter here. The question is, who will he throw to? Five of the team’s top six receivers from last season are gone, including Tajae Sharpe, who grabbed 111 passes for 1,319 yards and five touchdowns last season. The top returning receiver for the Minutemen is Shakur Nesmith, who had 15 grabs for 204 yards and three scores. At least Marquis Young (973 yards, 7 TD) gives Massachusetts a proven commodity on the ground.
Defensively, the Minutemen have only four starters coming back from a unit that was torched last season. Massachusetts gave up a blistering 47 percent conversion rate on third downs last season. The Minutemen gave up 447.8 yards per game on defense last year while allowing 5.7 yards per play. Four of last season’s top five tacklers are gone from the defense. Shane Hubbs, who was second on the team with 95 tackles a year ago, is going to have to be the anchor for the Minutemen. Massachusetts picked up just 15 sacks last season, which was less than Carl Nassib had for Penn State. The Minutemen have to improve in the scoring defense department after ranking 92nd in FBS last year by giving up 31.4 points a game.
Florida’s off-field issues continue to pervade the team as they are minus five players for this one. That group includes Jalen Tabor, who was an All-American last season at corner. He probably isn’t going to be needed for this contest given the weaknesses of Massachusetts. Former Oregon State transfer Luke Del Rio gets his first career start in this contest. He becomes the third starting quarterback in the Jim McElwain era, which is not a stellar mark to lean on given that he’s been with the team one year. The Gators need to improve their offensive numbers of a year ago when they were 100th in scoring offense with 23.2 points a game. The offensive line allowed the most sacks in the nation last year with 45.
The defense will miss the departed Vernon Hargreaves III, who was a shutdown corner. Tabor takes over the #1 corner spot, at least once he returns from suspension. Florida brings back six starters from last season’s defense and has a slew of depth on their defensive line. The Gators rang up 101 tackles for loss last season though Jonathan Bullard (17.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks) is no longer a part of that group. Florida was 11th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 18.3 points a game. The Gators allowed 310.2 yards per contest, including 128.6 yards on the ground and 3.5 yards per carry. If Florida can improve in the kicking game (they missed five extra points and 10 of 17 field goal attempts last season), the Gators could be more successful in close games.
Florida is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 in September. Massachusetts is 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall, 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four on grass.