After a 10-win season in 2018, the Kentucky Wildcats will try to keep it going in 2019, as they begin their season against the Toledo Rockets. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, August 31, at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. Fans interested in watching can find the game on the SEC Network.
At home, the Wildcats are considered 11.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is 58.5 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s college football odds.
As mentioned, the Wildcats are fresh off one of their best seasons in program history. Mark Stoops has slowly built a stable program, taking Kentucky to a bowl game in three straight seasons. But 2018 was something special. The Wildcats notched wins over Florida and Mississippi State and then beat Penn State in the Citrus Bowl to earn their 10th win of the season and finish ranked in the top-15.
Of course, the follow up to a season like that isn’t always easy. Kentucky is still playing in the unforgiving SEC, and opposing teams will no longer take them lightly. It’ll be challenging for Stoops to avoid a letdown after winning 10 games this season, and the Wildcats don’t have an easy opening game with Toledo coming to town.
The Rockets have long been one of the most consistent teams in the MAC. In fact, they are the defending MAC champions, going 11-3 last season. Toledo has been to a bowl game in eight of the last nine seasons and is 28-13 in three seasons under Jason Candle. In other words, they are not your ordinary MAC team.
Toledo has no fear when it comes to scheduling big-time opponents. The Rockets have faced the Miami Hurricanes in each of the past two seasons. They won’t be intimidated to go on the road and play an SEC team and they won’t look at it as an automatic loss.
On paper, an SEC team facing a MAC team feels like a mismatch, but not when it comes to Toledo. The Rockets can play with just about anyone in the country. I also think that Kentucky is bound to take a small step back and have some growing pains early in the season. If that holds true, I think the Wildcats will struggle to put Toledo away and cover the spread, even if they pull out a win.
I have high hopes for the Toledo offense heading into the season. After breaking his collar bone midway through the 2018 season, quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is back in the saddle and ready to lead the Rockets. To be fair, Guardagni struggled with his accuracy at times last season, completing only 57.5% of his passes. The Rockets also have the tall task of replacing their top three receivers from a year ago, so the passing game may not be clicking right away. But Guardagni had 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions the first half of 2018, so he can play.
On top of that, the Rockets might have the best running back tandem in the MAC. Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour combined for over 1,400 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. They will be a great 1-2 punch behind a solid offensive line, ensuring that the Rockets don’t put everything on Guardagni’s shoulders.
On the flip side, Kentucky’s great defense from 2018 will be missing seven starters, including Josh Allen, who won National Defensive Player of the Year honors. He’ll be almost impossible to replace. The Wildcats will be young all over the defense, especially in the secondary, which is good news for Guardagni and the Toledo passing attack.
Meanwhile, I have a few concerns about the Kentucky offense, especially since Toledo could turn this game into a shootout. Quarterback Terry Wilson did enough to win 10 games last year, but they’ll need more from him this season. Kentucky lost three starters on the offensive line and running back Blake Snell. The Snell-Wilson tandem was outstanding last year. But now Wilson has to do more with his arm, which is where he can be inconsistent, throwing just 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions in 2018.
The caveat is that the Toledo defense isn’t exactly stout. They had some struggles last season and also have a few key players to replace early in the 2019 campaign. But the Rockets have a little more depth than most MAC teams, especially along the defensive line. Toledo will feel like they can compete with Kentucky, and they’ll feel good about their chances if they can slow down the run and force Wilson to beat them with his arm.
To me, covering a double-digit spread means scoring points, and I’m not convinced that’s an area where Kentucky will thrive. They averaged just 21 points per game against bowl teams last year, and I’d be a little surprised if they break 30 in this game. Also, the Wildcats may not be able to rely on their dominant defense to carry them the way it did last year, especially against a potent Toledo offense. Even if the Rockets can’t pull off the upset, they’ll keep it close and beat the spread.