The Baylor Bears will put their undefeated record on the line this week as they head to the Little Apple to face the Kansas State Wildcats. The game is set to kick off at 3:30 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas. Fans can catch all of the action on ESPN2.
According to our Week 6 betting odds, the Wildcats are 2-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points.
Baylor is perhaps one of the more surprising 4-0 teams in the country. Perhaps not so coincidentally, their fast start has coincided with head coach Matt Rhule getting a contract extension. Of course, the Bears aren’t the most convincing 4-0 team. They survived a 21-13 road win against lowly Rice last month and then needed a last-second field goal after blowing a 20-point lead against Iowa State this past week.
Nevertheless, the Bears are 4-0 and well on their way to a bowl game for the second straight season. Of course, the games will only get more difficult from here on out. With a tough November schedule, it’s important for Baylor to keep up their momentum and keep the wins coming.
Meanwhile, Kansas State suffered a setback in their conference opener against Oklahoma State last week. The Wildcats were doubled on the scoreboard 26-13 and more than doubled in total yards. It was a huge let down for K-State, especially after beating Mississippi State on the road in their previous game.
The silver lining is that the Wildcats are about to start a three-game homestand and won’t have to leave the state of Kansas again until the second week of November. That could allow the Wildcats to get back on track and start pushing for a bowl game after missing out on one last year.
The series between Baylor and K-State has been one of the more competitive in recent years. The Bears won a tight 37-34 game last year after K-State had won back-to-back games against Baylor, including a 33-10 win in 2017 the last time the Bears visited the Little Apple.
I may be jumping the gun a little, but I’m starting to believe in Baylor. They have a lot going for them whereas Kansas State has some flaws that I think Big 12 teams will be able to exploit. In a game that’s a virtual tossup, I’ll side with Baylor and the points, even on the road.
Kansas State’s biggest problem in their loss to Oklahoma State was stopping the run. The Wildcats did a nice job against the pass, but they were shredded on the ground for 373 yards. Stopping the run was also an issue to a lesser extent in their win over Mississippi State, so this may not be a problem that can be solved easily. The Wildcats are just going to have to find ways to overcome it.
Baylor could be capable of exploiting K-State’s problems stopping the run. Take this with a grain of salt because of some of the opponents they’ve played, but the Bears are averaging six yards per carry on the ground this season. The Bears didn’t do that much damage last week against a strong Iowa State defense. But I think there’s enough talent in the Baylor backfield to take advantage of K-State’s weak run defense.
It should help that Kansas State will have to respect the Baylor passing attack. I’ll admit to being a little skeptical of quarterback Charlie Brewer earlier this season. But he played a great game against Iowa State last week. He wasn’t perfect, but he ended up throwing for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Perhaps more importantly, he’s yet to throw an interception in four games. Meanwhile, Denzel Mims is looking like one of the best wide receivers in the Big 12, giving Brewer at least one deep threat who can stretch the K-State defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas State offense is coming off an underwhelming performance against Oklahoma State. The Cats were a little fortunate to get a kickoff return for a touchdown and a few turnovers against Mississippi State because their offense needs plenty of help to put points on the board. The K-State running backs have struggled to create explosive plays against their two power-conference opponents while quarterback Skylar Thompson just can’t get it done through the air. He’s had under 125 passing yards in two straight games with just one touchdown over that span. That’s just not going to get it done in the Big 12.
I’m also starting to come around a little on the Baylor defense. Keeping Iowa State scoreless for three quarters last week was impressive. It would have been better if they didn’t give up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. But against a somewhat limited K-State offense, I think the Baylor defense will be fine.
For the record, I don’t think Baylor is a serious contender in the Big 12 this year. But their 4-0 start is no fluke. More importantly, I think the Bears are capable of exploiting some of Kansas State’s weaknesses. Even as road underdogs, I think Baylor comes away with a win to stay unbeaten.