Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (539) and Denver Nuggets (540) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (63-29) has won seven of their last ten games while evening this series at 3-3 with their 115-70 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (64-29) had their three-game winning streak snapped with the setback.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves played their best game of the season by holding the Nuggets to just 30.2% shooting — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than 35% shooting. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after beating a Northwest Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against a divisional opponent. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Denver has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. The Nuggets did cover the point spread in three straight games before their loss on Thursday — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver returns home where they have played 25 of their last 38 games Under the Total when favored by up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 3 of their last 4 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination and the Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total in potential closeout circumstances. 10* NBA Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Minnesota Timberwolves (539) and Denver Nuggets (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-29) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 115-70 loss on the road against the Timberwolves on Thursday. Minnesota (63-29) has won seven of their last ten games while evening this series at 3-3. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver earned a mulligan in this series after rallying from losing the first two games of this series with three straight victories by a combined 50 points. The Nuggets only made 30.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort of their season — and their 70 points were also a season-low. But Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after a loss by ten or more points to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Nuggets started Game Six slow by trailing at the half by a 59-40 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after trailing by 15 or more points at halftime of their last game. Minnesota played their best defensive game of the season by holding Denver to 30.2% shooting. But the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games on the road after playing a game at home where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 190 combined points were scored. And while Minnesota had not covered the point spread in three straight games before Game Six, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (540) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (539). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Diego Padres (911) and the Atlanta Braves (912) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Bryce Elder. THE SITUATION: San Diego (23-24) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 3-1 win on the road against the Braves on Friday. Atlanta (26-15) has lost two games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Yesterday’s game was postponed because of rain — and the Padres have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an off day. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. San Diego has not scored more than three runs in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in two or more games in a row. They have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three runs in three or more games in a row. Darvish gets the ball with a 3-1 record along with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In his two starts on the road, the right-hander has a 2.70 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .189. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which includes hard-hit rate and exit velocity is an impressive 3.17. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs. They counter with Elder who has a 1.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in his two starts at home this season. The Braves have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home with the Total set from 8.5 to 10. They have also played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total when listed as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher — and they have played 10 of their 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range with Elder their starting pitcher. 

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 8.5 to 10 range — and San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set from 9 to 9.5. 8* MLB San Diego-Atlanta ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between San Diego Padres (911) and the Atlanta Braves (912) listing both starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Bryce Elder. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (542) minus the points versus the the Indiana Pacers (541) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series after their 116-103 loss as a 5-point underdog on the road on Friday. Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with that triumph.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: New York should play better this afternoon after blowing their opportunity to end this series on Friday. The Knicks have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 41 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after losing three of their last four games. And in their last 26 games after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 17 of these contests. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 49 games after a point spread win. The Pacers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set from 200 to 209.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when averring a double-digit loss on the road. 8* NBA Indiana-New York ABC-TV Special with the New York Knicks (542) minus the points versus the the Indiana Pacers (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (54-41) forced this Game Seven with their 116-103 victory as a 5-point favorite at home on Friday. New York (57-37) has lost three of the last four games in this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers have played 17 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread victory. They have played 12 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 road games Under the Total after a win at home by 10 or more points. Now they go back on the road where they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 200s. Additionally, the Pacers have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total in a road game in the playoffs where they could potentially close out the series. New York has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. The Knicks return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when playing with revenge from a loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by double-digits. 25* NBA 2nd Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (541) and the New York Knicks (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.