What a pleasure it is to be previewing another American pigskin season for the fine folks at BetFirm. It’s even more of a pleasure that there are marquee games scheduled to open the CFB slate in mid-August…not so much of that “Week Zero” experiment from last year.
Oh, sure, there’s the obligatory late-summer opener at Hawaii. But that’s actually going to be a good ‘un in 2019, a road trip for the Arizona Wildcats that matches Khalil Tate and a Pac-12 roster against the Rainbow Warriors’ own version of high-octane point scoring.
More eyes will be on the early kickoff in Orlando on Saturday, and a rivalry match-up between Florida and Miami that doesn’t happen often enough in the 21st century. It’s actually weird that the Gators and ‘Canes haven’t met since 2013 considering how natural a pairing the programs are. But there’s often only room for 1 difficult Power-5 opponent in the out-of-conference schedule, and Gainesville has had another grudge going with Florida State of the Atlantic Coast Conference since 1958. That’s a state title game and must take priority.
The fans are taking priority in 2019, with an intriguing opener featuring a Top 10 team in preseason polls.
Who: #8 Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes
When: Saturday, August 24th, 7 PM EST
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Lines: Florida (-7.5) vs Miami (+7.5) / O/U Total: (47)
Gator Nation is ginned-up going into Dan Mullen’s 2nd year in command after a 10-3 finish and 41-15 stomping of Michigan. What sparked the turn-around? Most of all, the improvement of redshirt junior QB Feleipe Franks, who electrified The Swamp with 24 touchdown passes. But the key number is “6,” as in the number of picks that the typically mistake-prone passer threw in his final underclass campaign.
A quality HC doing his job usually results in lots of news stories about players supposedly having “stepped up.” Mullen may be bringing his passers along in the classroom at a faster rate than his rivals.
5’11” senior RB Lamical Perine and all-purpose skill player Kadarius Toney are capable of putting Franks and the Gator offense in 2nd down and short often. But not if the team loses the line of scrimmage. A lack of proven talent and depth on the OL is the only thing keeping Florida out of speculators’ 2019-20 College Football Playoff conversations at this point.
A fierce defense will fight in all dozen games. C.J. Henderson and Brad Stewart Jr. may sound like a pair of NASCAR racers, but they’re actually ball-hawking DBs for the Florida Gators. Jabari Zuniga is one of the SEC’s fiercest run-stuffing and pocket-collapsing D-linemen.
Mark Richt is out of the head coaching picture at The U after a mostly-disastrous 2018 campaign in which the Miami Hurricanes lost 4 in a row in mid-season and were splattered 35-3 by Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl. New skipper Manny Diaz will try to do better in 2019.
Richt may be gone but the Miami QB controversy remains, with redshirt sophomore N’Kosi Perry, redshirt freshman Jarren Williams, and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell expected to vie for the coveted role. Jeff Thomas is a quality returning WR for any of the trio to pass to, but he needs a partner-in-crime. Buffalo graduate transfer K.J. Osborn hopes to be the injection of speed and skill the offense needs after recording 53 receptions for 892 yards and 7 touchdowns last season. Hopefully he won’t roll over and croak in big moments, as his former program did against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game last year.
The bright spot in 2018 was defense, in which the Hurricanes ranked 4th in the FBS. Quick junior DL Jonathan Garvin is a monster for any back to handle, and Shaquille Quarterman is a returning All-ACC linebacker who posted double-digit tackles for loss in his sophomore season.
The point spread is no surprise since Florida trended up while Miami floundered in 2018. But why is the Over/Under total on a heavy-action contest shrinking? The current Vegas total is (47) points, more than a field goal lower than the 50+ point opening line.
It could be windy, or rainy. Some forecasts even project thunderstorms and lightning this weekend in Orlando. Perhaps a percentage of gamblers believe a weather delay and resulting interrupted rhythm of each offense will be enough to lower the likely final score, but who can predict storms on a peninsula days in advance?
Maybe more gamblers are just thinking of how big, mean, and tough Florida is likely to be in ’19.
Florida feels like a dubious point-spread pick at more than a TD + XP, considering that bettors often keep last season in mind when they should be looking ahead. Richt’s conceited and often-toxic presence has left the Miami Hurricanes program – that’s addition-by-subtraction in the short term.
But in the late summer – the late summer as in mid-August – defenses often aren’t feeling it quite yet and will be a step behind a pair of improving attacks.
Take the Over (47) for Orlando on Saturday.