For the first time in eight years, the Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers will renew their rivalry on the football field, and they’ll do so with both teams ranked in the top-10. The no. 10 Gators will play host to the no. 7 Tigers at 3:30 EST on Saturday, October 5 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.
Oddsmakers view the Tigers as 3-point favorites on the road with an over/under of 47 points. Click here for a full schedule and betting odds for all of this week’s college football games.
The Tigers have passed the first five tests of their season with flying colors. Auburn has already scored impressive wins over the likes of Oregon, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State on their way to being 5-0. However, they are set to play all three of their October games on the road, including this week’s road trip to the Swamp and a visit to LSU at the end of the month. It won’t be easy, but if the Tigers can remain undefeated through that stretch, there will be no denying that they are serious contenders for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Things are a little different for the Gators, who haven’t been challenged quite as much. Two of their five wins have come against FCS teams. To date, their most impressive win was the season opener against a Miami team that barely beat Central Michigan last week. Florida is set to play three of their next four games against top-10 teams, so this is the point in the season when the Gators have to prove themselves. Despite the 5-0 record, there are still reasons to be skeptical of Florida, but a win over Auburn can change that.
As mentioned, these two teams haven’t crossed paths since 2011, so it’s been a while for two teams that have produced plenty of memorable moments over the years. For what it’s worth, the Tigers have won four of the last five meetings, including their last visit to Gainesville in 2007. Of course, Gus Malzahn and Dan Mullen matched wits on a yearly basis from 2013 to 2017 while Mullen was still at Mississippi State. Malzahn and the Tigers won three of those five meetings, including a pair of lopsided affairs in 2016 and 2017.
Florida is starting to get healthy and has looked good against inferior opponents. But I’m high on Auburn right now. The Tigers have proved a lot during their first five games, and I think they’re ready to beat a top-10 team on the road. Admittedly, I’m a little nervous about taking a road favorite in The Swamp. However, there is evidence of Auburn winning a game like this, so I’ll eat the points and lean toward the Tigers.
With all due respect, the jury is still out Florida quarterback Kyle Trask, who has taken over as the starter after the injury to Feleipe Franks. Trask came up big in the comeback win over Kentucky in the game that Franks was hurt, but this is his first true test as the starter. It concerns me that he threw two interceptions against Tennessee, even if the Gators won easily. Also, he was sacked three times last week against Towson. I’m not blaming him for that, but it’s a concern for the entire Florida offense this week against Auburn’s defensive line.
The Tigers have dominated teams at the line of scrimmage this season, which could pose a problem for the Gators. Florida running backs Lamical Perine and Dameon Pierce have both been held in check against SEC teams this season. That doesn’t bode well for Florida’s chances of establishing a ground game against Auburn and taking some of the heat off Trask. The Gators don’t want to be in a position in which Trask has to carry the offense with his arm. That’s a recipe for the Auburn defensive line pinning its ears back and coming after the inexperienced quarterback.
The key for Florida in this game could be their defense. If the Gators can keep this a low-scoring game, they won’t have to abandon the run and force too much on Trask’s shoulders. Instead, they can be patient with the offense and hope that their defense or special teams can make a big play to give them the edge. On paper, the Florida defense has performed at a high level, but they’ve yet to be challenged that much.
Meanwhile, the Auburn offense is coming off a breakout performance, scoring 56 points last week against Mississippi State. The caveat is that the Tigers turned it over three times. But if we can forgive those errors, the Auburn offense was able to stay balanced and move the ball with ease. More importantly, it was by far the best performance from true freshman quarterback Bo Nix, who has improved from week to week. Nix also showed in the season opener against Oregon that he’s capable of coming up big in the clutch.
For the record, I’m not expecting fireworks from the Auburn offense this week. However, I think that Nix and the Tigers will eventually be able to put together a few good drives. Meanwhile, I think the Auburn defensive line will keep Trask and the Gators from answering. Despite a little hesitation, I’m comfortable eating the field points and leaning toward Auburn to cover on the road.