Regional rivals will collide the first week of the college football season when the Arkansas State Red Wolves host the SMU Mustangs. Game time is set for 7:00 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Fans can catch all of the action on ESPN-Plus.
Oddsmakers see this as a close game with Arkansas State favored by 2.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 58 points. Click here to see a full list of betting odds and game previews for all of this week’s college football games.
Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson has built the Red Wolves into one of the top programs in the Sun Belt during his tenure at the school. He’s taken ASU to a bowl game five times in five seasons. Anderson and the Red Wolves also won at least a share of the Sun Belt title in both 2015 and 2016.
Last season, the Red Wolves tied for the top spot in the Sun Belt West division but lost out on a spot in the conference championship game because of a road loss to Louisiana earlier in the year. Despite missing out on another conference title and losing their bowl game in overtime, Arkansas State finished a respectable 8-5, setting the stage for another good season in 2019. However, the Red Wolves will begin the season without Anderson, who has taken a leave of absence following the death of his wife, who passed away earlier this month after a two-year battle with breast cancer.
At SMU, Sonny Dykes is entering his second full season in charge of the Mustangs. Dykes took over at the tail end of a 7-6 season in 2017 after previous coach Chad Morris left for Arkansas. However, Dykes and the Mustangs couldn’t overcome a 0-3 start in 2018, including losses to TCU and Michigan. SMU finished last season 5-7, suffering a 3-point loss to Tulsa in the season finale with bowl eligibility on the line.
On the bright side, Dykes has eight years of head coaching experience under his belt, so he’ll know how to get things turned around in 2019. The downside is that the Mustangs play a schedule that features nine teams that played in a bowl game last season. That means SMU can’t afford another slow start, making the season opener against Arkansas State critical for their bowl hopes.
These teams met two years ago on SMU’s home turf with the Mustangs winning 44-21. However, that was during SMU’s breakthrough season under Morris and both teams have undergone significant changes since then. Arkansas State will have redemption on their mind now that they have a chance to play the Mustangs at home.
Honestly, I don’t see a lot separating these two teams. In a game that looks even on paper, I have to go with the underdog, even if they’re on the road and the spread is less than a field goal. Plus, SMU comes from a little better conference, so I feel comfortable taking the Mustangs.
Admittedly, the SMU offense was a disappointment last season. But Dykes has the reputation of leading high-scoring teams. More importantly, the Mustangs have upgraded at quarterback with Texas transfer Shane Buechele. People forget that he threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns as a freshman at Texas in 2016. Ultimately, he lost out on the starting job at Texas to Sam Ehlinger, but there’s no shame in that. Buechele should be a great fit at SMU, and his teammates voting him a captain is a good sign that he’s ready to lead the Mustangs.
Not only does SMU have a top-notch quarterback, but they have the talent at receiver to get the best out of Buechele. The Mustangs return their top receivers from a year ago in James Proche and Reggie Roberson, who combined for over 2,000 yards receiving in 2018. The addition of Notre Dame transfer CJ Sanders also adds an interesting dimension to the SMU offense. To be fair, the Mustangs struggled to run the ball last year. But between Buechele and the SMU receivers, the Mustangs should be able to overcome a sluggish rushing attack.
On the other side of the ball, the Red Wolves have to replace Justice Hansen, a three-year starter at quarterback. Junior Logan Bonner takes over and has a little bit of playing experience. But he’s failed to impress in limited action. Even with 1,000-yard receiver Kirk Merritt returning, there could be some growing pains early in the season for the Arkansas State offense. Meanwhile, the SMU defense returns nine starters and might be a little more physical than Arkansas State at the line of scrimmage, which could hinder the Red Wolves and their new quarterback.
If I’m splitting hairs in this matchup, I have to give SMU the slight edge. Also, it doesn’t help that Arkansas State is operating without their head coach, even if the Red Wolves are playing with a little extra motivation with their head coach away from the team. In the end, I think SMU will win as a road underdog.