Week 5 of the college football season will conclude with a Pac-12 South battle between the Arizona Wildcats and UCLA Bruins. Game time is at 10:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Fans can watch the game on ESPN.
Oddsmakers list the Wildcats as 7.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 71.5 points. Be sure to check out all of this week’s college football odds.
The Bruins were part of what was easily the most exciting game in college football last week. UCLA overcame a 49-17 deficit midway through the third quarter and came all the way back to beat Washington State 67-63. It’s not an overstatement to say that Chip Kelly and the Bruins needed that win. UCLA lost their first three games of the season to Cincinnati, San Diego State, and Oklahoma. But they somehow found a way to win their Pac-12 opener.
Of course, the Bruins need five more wins if they want to reach a bowl game in Kelly’s second season in Westwood. UCLA’s schedule is backloaded, so it’s vital that the Bruins find a way to string some wins together in September and October. If not, it’ll be difficult for UCLA to improve upon last year’s 3-9 record.
Arizona, meanwhile, heads into their Pac-12 opener at 2-1. The Wildcats had an immediate setback with a season-opening loss to Hawaii. But Kevin Sumlin’s team has responded in a positive manner, beating Northern Arizona and Texas Tech before taking last week off.
Unfortunately for Arizona, they have one of the most difficult schedules in the Pac-12. Two of their four crossover games with the North division are against Washington and Oregon, both top-20 teams. That means the Wildcats have four games against ranked teams, and that doesn’t include road games against Colorado, Stanford, and Arizona State. In other words, a home game against UCLA is probably won the Wildcats need to win if they want to play in a bowl game.
The Wildcats will also be looking to get a little revenge after losing to the Bruins last year. Actually, Arizona only has just one win over UCLA in the last seven years. Knowing the Bruins are in the middle a rebuilding project, the Wildcats need to take advantage of a great chance to beat UCLA, which is something they failed to do last season.
This game is tough to call because it’s impossible to know the real UCLA. Is it the team that made an extraordinary comeback against a top-25 team or is it the team that went 0-3 and then fell behind Washington State by 32 points? I could be wrong, but I’m not ready to buy that last week’s win means that Kelly has gotten things turned around at UCLA. I’ll take my chances with the Wildcats.
In fairness, UCLA hasn’t played any cupcakes. Even teams like Cincinnati and San Diego State are solid mid-major programs that will probably play in a bowl game this year. The Bruins have certainly challenged themselves. That being said, their offense looked dead in the water for three and a half games before the second half last week. The Bruins are averaging less than three yards per carry on the season while quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has completed less than 60% of his passes and thrown five picks through four games. I don’t think one amazing half will suddenly alter the course of UCLA’s offense and fix the problems they had through the first three games of the season.
At the same time, I was impressed that the Arizona defense only gave up 14 points to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago. Part of that is due to the Arizona offense winning the time of possession by a healthy margin. But Sumlin made some changes after last year and they seem to be paying off after a rough start to the season. Also, keep in mind that Arizona had last week off. Sumlin has had plenty of time to figure out where Washington State went wrong against UCLA and make sure the Wildcats don’t repeat those mistakes.
The other reason I like Arizona in this game is the play of quarterback Khalil Tate. Through three games, Tate has looked like the player he was two seasons ago when he looked like a potential Heisman candidate. Tate has gone back to throwing the ball less and running the ball more, which plays to his strengths. He’s probably the most dangerous runner on Arizona’s roster. Plus, throwing the ball less has improved his completion percentage and made him a more effective passer. Turnovers have been a concern early in the year, but Tate’s explosiveness as a runner helps to make up for that.
It’s important to keep in mind that despite UCLA’s comeback last week, the Bruins have also been shredded defensively the past two weeks. I think they’ll have similar issues this week trying to stop Tate and the Arizona offense. As long as the Arizona defense can put up some resistance the way they did against Texas Tech, the Wildcats should win by a comfortable margin and cover the spread.