One of three showdowns between the ACC and SEC during the opening weekend of the college football season features the no. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide facing the Duke Blue Devils in the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game. Game time is set for 3:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game can be seen nationally on ABC.
Based on the Week 1 college football odds, Alabama is favored by 33.5 points over Duke. The over/under for the game is 58 points.
For a coach who’s been in the National Championship Game in four straight seasons, Nick Saban doesn’t appear to be a happy camper heading into the 2019 season. It probably has something to do with Alabama falling short against Clemson in the College Football Playoff final last season. In fact, the Tide was borderline embarrassed in that game, losing 44-16.
On the bright side, not since the 2013-2014 seasons has Alabama failed to not win a national championship in back-to-back years, which bodes well for the Crimson Tide ahead of the 2019 campaign. We also can’t forget how utterly dominant Alabama was in just about every game last year outside the SEC title game and the loss to Clemson. With Saban upset at losing the title game, he should keep his team motivated to chase perfection and another championship this season.
At Duke, expectations are a little different, but head coach David Cutcliffe continues to meet or exceed them. The Blue Devils have played in a bowl game in six of the last seven seasons. They’ve even won their last three bowl appearances.
To be fair, the Blue Devils are a little disappointed at finishing 3-5 in ACC play last season, especially when the Coastal division was wide open and was within their reach if a few games had gone differently. They also fell apart after starting the season 4-0. But Cutcliffe and company will be satisfied with their 8-5 record in 2018 and would love to match or exceed that win total in 2019.
One of the few things these two programs have in common is coaching stability. Alabama and Duke haven’t met on the gridiron since 2010, nearly a decade ago. However, both Saban and Cutcliffe were serving as head coach at their respective schools back then, as the Crimson Tide ripped apart the Blue Devils 62-13 in Durham.
I don’t care what the spread is, I trust Alabama to cover it. Well, unless they’re playing another top-5 team like Georgia or Clemson, then we’ll talk. But the Crimson Tide is head and shoulders better than Duke, and then some. After a full offseason to stew over that loss to Clemson, Saban will have his team ready, and he won’t take his foot off the gas. I like Alabama to win by at least five touchdowns and cover the spread.
With Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, the Crimson Tide is going to score consistently and create a lot of big plays. He had some issues against Georgia and Clemson last year, but the Heisman runner-up is going to be just fine. He’s way too talented not to bounce back and pick up where he left off last November.
It also helps that Alabama is deep at wide receiver. Jerry Jeudy is the star, but the Crimson Tide has several capable playmakers on the outside. Running back Najee Harris should also have no problem stepping in for Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs after flashing great potential last season.
Defensively, Duke is trying to replace three of their top four tacklers from a year ago. The Blue Devils have some talent on the defensive line, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be pushed around by the five-star players on Alabama’s offensive line, exposing an inexperienced group at linebacker. That should allow Alabama to establish a running game, and Tagovailoa will take care of the rest.
On the bright side, all is not lost for Duke, at least not on offense. While (top-10 pick?) Daniel Jones has to be replaced at quarterback, the Blue Devils have a veteran waiting in the wings. Fifth-year senior Quentin Williams was actually 2-0 last season when starting in place of an injured Jones. The caveat is that Duke will have to alter the offense to fit Williams, who is more of a runner than a passer, completing just 50% of his passes last year, albeit with seven touchdowns to one interception.
The other problem the Blue Devils are facing is the Alabama defense. There appears to be some level of concern about the Crimson Tide’s depth after yet another year in which they lost several key players to the NFL. But with all of the top-5 recruiting classes that Saban has brought in over the years, it’s hard to believe Alabama won’t be ready to face a Duke offense that could end up being a little one-dimensional.
For what it’s worth, it’s possible to create an argument that Duke can keep this game close enough to beat the spread. Cutcliffe is a great coach and Williams has some experience at quarterback. But we have to assume that this will be the same old Alabama that blows out just about everybody. I’ll take my chances with the Crimson Tide being able to cover.