A pair of Pac-12 heavyweights will meet up in a critical game this weekend when the no. 17 Washington Huskies play host to the no. 21 USC Trojans. The fun will get started at 3:30 EST on Saturday, September 28 at Husky Stadium in Seattle. The game will be broadcast nationally on Fox.
According to our Week 5 college football odds, the Huskies are favored by 10 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 59 points.
The twists and turns the USC season has taken over the first four weeks of the season are almost hard to believe. The Trojans lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to a season-ending injury in the opener but seemed to have found something in true freshman backup Kedon Slovis. Of course, Slovis was the scapegoat in a loss to BYU and then got hurt last week. That opened the door for third-stringer Matt Fink to lead USC to a 30-23 win over no. 10 Utah to put the Trojans back in the top-25.
As it stands, the Trojans are 3-1 overall and 2-0 in Pac-12 play, giving them a huge leg up in the Pac-12 South race, especially considering their head-to-head win over Utah. However, the Trojans are on the road against a pair of ranked teams in Washington and Notre Dame for their next two games. On the bright side, if USC can win those two games, they will surely put themselves in the College Football Playoff conversation.
As for Washington, the Huskies suffered an early setback with a 1-point home loss to Cal the second week of the season. But Washington has rebounded with a pair of convincing wins over Hawaii and BYU the last two weeks to get them to 3-1 and stabilize their spot in the top-25.
However, Washington’s problem is that they started off 0-1 in Pac-12 play. With a loss to USC on Saturday, the Huskies would no longer control their own destiny with regard to reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game. Washington’s saving grace is that their most difficult conference games are all at home. On the other hand, home-field advantage wasn’t enough against Cal a few weeks ago.
Since these two teams are in different divisions within the Pac-12, they haven’t met since 2016. The Trojans won that game in Seattle 26-13 on their way to the Rose Bowl that year.
If you can figure out what USC is going to do from one game to the next or even one quarter to the next, I’m all ears. Based on my own observations, no result involving the Trojans is off the table. But this is a team that is loaded with five-star talent and has to be confident after last week’s huge win. A letdown is surely possible, especially against a quality team on the road. But I’ll put some faith in USC and lean toward the Trojans to at least beat the spread.
At the moment, it’s unclear who will start at quarterback for USC. Slovis is under concussion protocol, so his availability won’t be determined until later in the week. However, Fink certainly proved himself capable of leading the USC offense last week. Most would consider the Utah defense to be among the best in the Pac-12. Coming in cold off the bench and throwing for over 350 yards is no accident, especially when the USC running game averaged less than one yard per carry, is nothing short of impressive.
Of course, the question is whether Fink or Slovis can replicate that kind of success against another quality defense, especially if the USC rushing attack continues to struggle. If the Trojans can’t run the ball and don’t hit on big passing plays down the field, they may not be able to replicate the 30 points they scored against Utah last week, regardless of who plays quarterback.
To be fair, I also have questions about the Washington offense. Quarterback Jacob Eason has looked outstanding against the weaker teams on Washington’s schedule. But he struggled against a talented Cal defense a few weeks ago. The Huskies were forced to settle for too many field goals in that game, which ultimately cost them.
While I haven’t been enamored with the USC defense, the Trojans appear to have just enough on that side of the ball to keep the Washington offense contained. USC is giving up a modest 24 points per game. But keep in mind they’ve faced four teams that will probably all play in a bowl game this year. The Huskies have put up big numbers against lesser teams while the Trojans have been challenged every game. They won’t dominate the game, but I think the USC defense be ready to face the Washington offense.
Despite some of the questions and uncertainties facing USC, I think the Trojans are good enough to make this a close game in the fourth quarter. I haven’t been blown away enough by Washington this year to make to eat the points. With a double-digit spread, I’m happy to take USC and the points.