The no. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes will get their 2019 season started with a home game against the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 EST on Saturday, August 31, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. The game will be broadcast on FS1.
According to the Week 1 odds, the Hawkeyes are 21-point favorites at home. The over/under for the game is set at 49 points.
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is entering his 21st season at the school. During the first 20 seasons, Ferentz has brought incredible consistency to Iowa, leading the Hawkeyes to 16 bowl, including six straight seasons that have ended with a bowl game.
The Hawkeyes are coming off yet another solid season in 2018. Despite a three-game losing streak late in the season that cost Iowa a chance to win the wide-open Big Ten West division, the Hawkeyes finished the season 9-4. The capped thing off with an Outback Bowl win over SEC foe Mississippi State. There’s no reason to expect anything different in 2019, especially with the Big Ten West still there for the taking.
Meanwhile, Chuck Martin is still trying to find his footing at Miami. This will be his sixth season as the head coach. However, he’s only taken the RedHawks to one bowl game in the previous five seasons. With a record of 22-39 in those five seasons, there’s a little pressure on Martin to lead Miami to a winning season and a bowl game in 2019.
In fairness, Martin has made great progress after going 5-19 over his first two seasons. The RedHawks won a share of the MAC East division in 2016 and finished the 2018 campaign 6-6 overall and 6-2 in conference play. However, it wasn’t good enough to get Miami to the MAC title game or even receive a bowl invitation, two things that are on the team’s to-do list this year.
Iowa and Miami have four previous meetings, all of which have been won by the Hawkeyes. Martin led the RedHawks into Iowa City back in 2016, but Ferentz and company took care of business with a 45-21 win.
I’m not sure where Iowa is going to stack up against the rest of the Big Ten when all is said and done, but I know they’re considerably better than Miami. I mean no offense to the RedHawks, who have a chance to become bowl eligible this year. But Miami will be a little out of their depth against Iowa, and I have no problem thinking the Hawkeyes can cover a 21-point spread.
The biggest reason I like Iowa to cover in this game is quarterback Nathan Stanley. He’s had his struggles against some of the better Big Ten teams during his career. But he enters his senior season with over 5,200 career passing yards. Stanley has also thrown 26 touchdown passes in back-to-back seasons, so the Hawkeyes know what they’re going to get from him. Against a MAC team, I have little doubt that Stanley will have a good game.
To be fair, the Iowa defense will look a little different this year. The Hawkeyes are accustomed to producing quality tight ends. But after T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant were both drafted in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft earlier this year, Iowa has no experienced tight ends who can take their spot without skipping a beat. However, the Hawkeyes will have two capable receivers in Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. More importantly, Iowa has a strong offensive line and a trio of experienced running backs to give them a balanced attack against what could be an overmatched Miami defense.
If the Iowa offense gets rolling, I don’t think the RedHawks will be able to keep up. A three-way quarterback competition at the start of training camp has not yet been decided. The official Miami depth chart lists sophomore Jackson Williamson, true freshman Brett Gabbert, and redshirt freshman AJ Mayer as co-starters.
Even if the RedHawks can keep the Iowa defense guessing who will start, none of the three have any experience. Plus, the fact that none of the three has stood out enough to win the job outright isn’t a good sign. The RedHawks also lost their top two rushers from last year, putting even more pressure on whichever quarterback gets the start.
To make matters worse, the Iowa defense is in good shape, especially at the line of scrimmage. The Hawkeyes could have the best pass-rushing duo in the Big Ten with A.J. Epenesa and Chauncey Golston. That duo will be frightening for a Miami offensive line that is replacing both starters on the left side. The rest of the Iowa defense isn’t bad either, especially when compared to a Miami offense with an inexperienced quarterback and no proven running backs.
Ultimately, there is a huge disparity between Iowa and Miami at both the quarterback position and at the line of scrimmage. Barring something unexpected from one of their quarterbacks, it’s hard to envision the RedHawks keeping this game close. I expect Iowa to have a comfortable lead by halftime and then cruise to victory in the second half. I’m not too worried about the Hawkeyes winning by at least three touchdowns and covering the spread.