Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 10:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (21). THE SITUATION: Vegas (25-9-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in a 3-2 loss at home against Montreal on Tuesday. Philadelphia (17-17-4) has won two of their last three games after a 4-0 win at San Jose on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vegas should rebound tonight as they have won 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home — and they have won 7 of their last 10 games at home after losing on home ice in their last contest. They have won 37 of their last 55 games at home with the Total set at 6 or higher — and they have won 13 of their last 16 games at home when favored. The Flyers are giving up 3.6 Goals-Per-Game — and the Golden Knights have won 17 of their last 23 games against teams who are giving up 3.0 or more Goals-Per-Game. Ilya Samsonov gets the nod to play between the pipes tonight. He has a 9-3-1 record in his 12 starts with a 2.75 Goals-Against-Average and a .906 save percentage this season. In his seven starts at home, he has a 5-2-0 record with a 2.44 GAA and a .911 save percentage. Philadelphia has lost 10 of their last 16 games after winning their last game — and they have lost 4 straight games after a win by four or more goals. They stay on the road where they have lost 14 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season. Vegas is outscoring their opponents by +0.7 Goals-Per-Game — and the Flyers have lost 6 of their last 8 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +0.5 or more Goals-Per-Game. Philly has also lost 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They counter with Aleksei Kolosov who has a 4-7-1 record with 3.39 GAA and a .872 save percentage. In his five starts on the road, he has been saddled with a 3.37 GAA and a .872 save percentage.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played against each other in Philadelphia on November 25th when the Golden Knights won by a 5-4 score. The Flyers have lost all 5 of their opportunities to avenge a same-season loss this year. 8* NHL Thursday Late Show Bailout with the money-line on the Vegas Golden Knights (22) versus the Philadelphia Flyers (21). Best of luck for us — Frank.

AAt 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (275) and the Mississippi Rebels (276) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Duke (9-3) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 win at Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. Mississippi (9-3) has won four of their last five contests after their 26-14 win against Mississippi State as a 26-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Duke will be without starting quarterback Malik Murphy who transferred to Oregon State after playing in the Wake Forest game. Sophomore Henry Belin IV will get the start under center after throwing only one pass in the regular season. The former three-star recruit completed 13 of 26 passes last season in a 24-3 win against North Carolina State. The Blue Devils will also be without starting running back Star Thomas who also entered the transfer portal. As it is, Duke only ranked 68th in Pass Success Rate. The problem they will have tonight is that they cannot lean on their rushing attack. The Blue Devils ranked 130th in Rush Success Rate — and they ranked 132nd in Line Yards. But the Duke defense should prevent this game from being a blowout. They have held eight of their 12 opponents to 21 or fewer points. The Blue Devils rank third in the nation in Havoc Rate — and they rank 10th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 30th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — and they rank 18th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. Their defense comes into this game with perhaps an injury to a cornerback but no opt-outs or players in the transfer portal. Duke has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This undermanned Blue Devils offense now faces one of the best defenses in the nation. Ole Miss held their opponents to just 315.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 13.9 Points-Per-Game. They have held nine of their last 12 opponents to no more than 20 points. Head coach Lane Kiffin made it a point to get bigger and faster on defense in the offseason so he added five transfers who were five-star or four-star recruits coming out of high school. The Rebels lead the nation with 52 sacks — and they also lead the nation in Havoc Rate. Additionally, they ranked sixth in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and ranked seventh in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also ranked 14th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. As a 17-point favorite, a blowout win for Ole Miss is a concern — but they scored no more than 28 points in seven of their last eight games. There is some talk that Kiffin will want to put up a big number to make a statement about their not making the college football playoffs — but he had more incentive to send that message in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State since they still had the opportunity to impress the committee. The Rebels have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a bye week. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: In the 7 bowls Ole Miss has played with Kiffin as their head coach, 5 of those contests finished Under the Total. 10* CFB Duke-Ole Miss ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (275) and the Mississippi Rebels (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273) in the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-2) has won four games in a row after their 22-19 upset win against Texas as a 3-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 7th. Notre Dame (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 27-17 win against Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a strange Georgia team this season. None of their players were consensus All-Americans which is a first for head coach Kirby Smart in his ninth year running the program. But the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent — and they will be the more talented team on the field today. But what this team lacks in star power this season, it makes up for in grit. The Bulldogs have won four games this season after trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. The season-ending injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a tough blow — but the team still rallied from a 6-3 halftime deficit to beat Texas with sophomore Gunner Stockton under center. The loss of Beck will certainly remove any level of complacency for the rest of the roster — everyone has to step up. And it’s not like Stockton is a bum. He is a four-star recruit who college football analyst Phil Steele listed as his second-rated quarterback in the 2023 class. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half against the Longhorns. He is a dual-threat so expect him to be used in the ground game. The Bulldogs may have an initial edge in this game since offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has had almost a month to develop a new game plan specific to his skillset. He will lack the vertical threat in the passing game that Beck offered — but against the Fighting Irish whose strength is their secondary, perhaps that is a blessing in disguise. Besides, it’s not as if Georgia’s blueprint for success under Smart is a gunslinging quarterback. The program that has won national championships with Stetson Bennett and reached the championship game with Jake Fromm will be just fine if Stockton is only a vanilla Jake Fromm (which, I know, is redundant). With Nick Saban retired and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL, Smart is hands down the best coach in college football — and that starts schematically and continues with preparation and then motivation. Now let’s talk about Marcus Freeman whose biggest victory in his three seasons as Notre Dame’s head coach was when they beat the Hoosiers 12 days ago. The only team that finished in the College Football Playoff Committee’s top 25 final rankings was Army — and that was before they got upset by Navy. While I don’t blame them for Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, and Louisville not meeting preseason expectations, I don’t give them a ton of credit for beating them either. The Fighting Irish are Flat Track Bullies whose physical style of play overwhelms most of their opponents — but now they play a team that is bigger, more skilled, and who play better competition on a week-to-week basis. And now they are without their best pass rusher after defensive tackle Rylie Mills’ season-ending injury against Indiana. Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: If a college football team is playing in January, then they are likely to be big games (save for the few minor bowl games being played in the next few days). Georgia has played seven games in January under Smart — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 7 contests. Notre Dame has only played one game in January under Freeman — and they did not cover. The Bulldogs were built for this moment while the Irish are hoping they are prepared for the step up in competition. 25* CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Scott (7119) versus Jason Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:15 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Scott who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Scott comes off a very nice season last year when he finished in second place at both the Genesis Scottish Open and the PGA BMW Championship. He finished tied for fourth place at the PGA Tour Championship — and he comes off a third place in Dubai his most recent event. Scott is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 15th in Driving Distance (all drives) last year. He is a good putter on slower greens. He is also adept with his irons when dealing with uneven lies. He has played this course as a professional eight times with four top-seven finishes including a second-place result. Six Aussies have won this tournament in its 21 years — so why not Scott to make it seven?

Scott is linked with Jason Day for Round One head-to-head props. Day is a great putter but he has been struggling with his irons lately. He ranked 152nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks 55th in this 60-player field in that category. That is not a good sign on a long course since distance off the tee is not his specialty. Day ranked 99th in the field last year in Total Driving and 93rd in Driving Distance. Take Scott (7119) versus Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7109) versus Viktor Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. His last event was the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas where he finished tied for 14th place which was actually his worst result in his last five tournaments. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August.  He is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. Additionally, he ranks 20th in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green which represents an uptick in the quality of his iron play. This is his fourth trip to the Kapalua Resort with his best previous finish being a tie for 19th place.

Burns is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We have won lots of money because of Hovland over the years — but this is not the time to back him. He has not played a professional event since the PGA Tour Championship at the end of August. He has a new coach after breaking up with his previous coach, Joe Mayo, once again (he parted ways with him early last year before reuniting again later in the year). He then broke his toe and will be playing through that injury. As it is, he has not finished better than 18th place in his four previous trips here all under better circumstances. His Achilles’ heel is his chipping game — and that is worrisome with him knocking off some rust in this event. Take Burns (7109) versus Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Justin Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win The Sentry is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa took the last two and half months off the PGA Tour — so he comes in fresh. He should be energized lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters, he registered 13-straight top 25 finishes before losing his touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play the Tour Championship suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. Putting can be an issue for Morikawa — but proficiency with his blade is less an obstacle on slower greens. With seven top-ten finishes in January throughout his career, he should come out of the gates firing. He has a great track record on this golf course as well. In his five trips to the Kapalua resort as a professional, he has never finished worse than seventh place including a second place in 2023. He botched his lead that year to Jon Rahm so getting a win now would offer some redemption — and it certainly does not hurt that Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week due to an injury. Morikawa has family ties to Maui so taking first place has extra emotional appeal this week.

Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas was mired in a slump with his usually elite-level iron play — but after a tie for second place at the Zozo Championship in Japan and then a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in the fall, it is safe to say that he has regained his touch. But the problem still is with his putting. He ranked 174th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. The average score per round at this tournament last year was 68.364 — almost five under-par. Putting problems is not the formula for success at birdies-fests. Thomas ranked 42nd in Birdies or Better Percentage last year. Morikawa, on the other hand, ranked 19th in that category. Take Morikawa (7006) versus Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.