Frank Sawyer: Expert Sports Betting Picks for Sale

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-29) has lost three straight games in this series after their 112-97 loss as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (64-28) has taken a 3-2 series lead.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 55.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. After Denver took 47% of their shots at the rim — and made 73.5% of these attempts — look for Rudy Gobert to go back to protecting the rim and daring Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to beat them with their shooting in a hostile environment. The last three games in this series have finished Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing their last game. The youth and depth of this Minnesota team should help them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. Denver's offensive explosion continued in Game Five as they nailed 55.0% of their shots making it their third straight game where they made at least 53.7% of their shots. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games after making 55.0% or more of their shots in their last game. They have covered the point spread in their last three victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 35 opportunities when motivated by revenge. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-28) took a 3-2 series lead on Tuesday with their 112-97 victory as a 3.5-point favorite in Game Five. Minnesota (62-29) has lost three straight games in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets’ offensive explosion continued as they nailed 55.0% of their shots making it their third straight game where they made at least 53.7% of their shots. Denver has played 31 of their last 49 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in their last two games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Minnesota should tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 55.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. After Denver took 47% of their shots at the rim — and they made 73.5% of these attempts — look for Rudy Gobert to go back to protecting the rim and daring Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to beat them with their shooting in a hostile environment. The last three games in this series have finished Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Minnesota has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Denver-Minnesota ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.